In February 2018, the AGRIndex decreased by 1.5% in month-to-month terms due to the drop in DAIRY (-5.0%), and VEGETABLE (-3.9%) prices – warm winter paid off! On the other hand, FRUIT (+4.3%) prices increased for the second consecutive month, while MEAT (-0.2%) prices declined marginally in February.
Interestingly, the m/m change in the AGRIndex became negative for first time since the last July, and the y/y change dropped to a 12-month low — the price of the AGRIndex basket was just +3.1% bigger than it was in February 2017.
Highest increase: In February 2018, quince prices increased by almost 45% in month-to-month terms, but the 9% gain in citrus prices contributed to the overall increase in FRUIT prices the most. In the absence of most seasonal fruits, citrus, the active harvest of which has already ended, is the main part of winter’s fruit diet, and high demand usually pushes the prices up in February.
Highest drop: In February 2018, the direction of month-to-month change in domestically produced milk prices became negative, and, thanks to this fact, Georgian cheese prices also were reduced by 5.7%. This has always occurred during the second month of the year since the inception of the AGRIndex, making seasonality the usual suspect for the change in cheese prices.
AGRIndex Recent Publications
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July 16, 2018 | Harvest Time in the Cherry Orchard
In June 2018, FRUIT prices continued their recent declining trend — the m/m change last month was equal to negative 8.0% (the largest drop since May 2017). Consequentially, the y/y change in FRUIT prices also shrunk to +4.7%, after minor increase in May 2018. On the product level, all fruits but citrus and grapes became cheaper in June 2018. Cherry prices were almost halved compared to the prior month, while peach and nectarine prices lost… Read More
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July 02, 2018 | AGRIndex – June Review
In June 2018, the AGRIndex declined by -2.54%. The main driver of this change was a -16.0% fall in VEGETABLE prices. FRUIT (-8.0%) prices also fell significantly, while MEAT (-0.1%) prices were practically unchanged, and DAIRY products gained +1.9% of their May 2018 prices. In y/y terms, after a steady decline since last November, the gap between the current AGRIndex and its 12-month-old counterpart widened again and reached +2.49% in May 2018. Highest increase: In… Read More
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June 18, 2018 | AGRIndex: The Unexpected Virtues of a Prolonged Winter
In May 2018, VEGETABLE prices decreased for the second consecutive month, and the m/m decline in prices (-11.1%) dropped to their lowest value since last July. As a result, the y/y change in VEGETABLE prices, after a small upward change in April, shrank again and was reduced to negative 9.8%. Interestingly, the y/y change was positive until the end of 2017, but remained negative from the beginning of the current year. On the product level,… Read More
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June 4, 2018 | AGRIndex: May Review
In May 2018, the AGRIndex fell by -4.2% - the biggest decline since May 2016 (interestingly, the biggest m/m drop in prices in 2017 was also observed in May). DAIRY prices lost as much as 14.8% of their April values, while VEGETABLE prices decreased by 11.1%. On the other hand, MEAT (-0.7%) prices changed only slightly, and FRUIT (-0.1%) prices were practically unchanged. In y/y terms, AGRIndex continued its latest trend and reached a 17-month low… Read More
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May 21, 2018 | AGRIndex: Divergence Within the Meat Market
In April 2018, MEAT prices increased for the second consecutive month, and the m/m gain in prices (+1.8%) reached their highest value since April 2017. Nonetheless, the y/y gain in MEAT prices continued to shrink in the last month and dropped to a 14-month low of +4.7% in April. On the product level, all types of meat except pork (-1.1%) gained in price in April 2017, but the speed and direction of the price changes… Read More
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May 07, 2018 | AGRIndex – April Review
In April 2018, compared to the previous month, only MEAT (+1.8%) prices went up, while DAIRY (-8.0%), VEGETABLE (-6.8%), and FRUIT (-2.6%) prices lost significant parts of their March 2018 values. As a result, AGRIndex experienced the biggest decline in m/m terms (-1.4%) since last July. The y/y AGRIndex also continued its latest trend and reached a 16 month low of +2.1% in April 2018. Graph #1 shows m/m changes in AGRIndex and its sub-indices: FRUIT,… Read More
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April 23, 2018 | AGRIndex: Less Cows, Expensive Milk!
In March 2018, DAIRY prices continued declining trend — the drop was as low as -7.1%, compared to the last month. Due to this change, the gain in the year-to-year AGRIndex also shrunk and reached +3.7% — the lowest figure since February 2017. Although the month-to-month decline in DAIRY was significant, the negative direction of the change was expected given that there exists clear seasonal pattern tied to the active lactation period. Active lactation starts… Read More
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