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The AGRIndex increased with moderate +1.4% in October 2017 compared to the September 2017 and the biggest share of this increase came from the gain in VEGETABLE (+11.2%) prices. DAIRY (+2.7%) products and FRUIT (+0.1%) became also expensive in m/m terms, while MEAT (-0.5%) lost prices in October for the first time since JUNE 2017.
Contrary to the m/m AGRIndex, y/y change in the AGRIndex was significant +11.6% and equaled to similar change in September 2017.
Highest increase: In October 2017 prices of Georgian tomato increased sharply, but it was potato that pushed the VEGETABLE prices up the most compared to September 2017. The production figures for this year are not available yet, but the trade data might reveal why potato prices are on rise — the volume of exported Georgian potato increased roughly sevenfold1 in January-September 2017 compared to the same period of 2016, while the imports had declining trend.
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In September 2017 DAIRY prices increased by 9.9% compared to August 2017 and this was the biggest month-to-month increase in the last 12 months, while compared to September 2016 the price increase was 9.3%.
More than 10% increase in cheese prices, which was itself driven by almost 15% gain in milk prices, pushed the m/m DAIRY prices up significantly in September 2017. The main determinants of such changes were the end of active lactation season (declined supply of domestically produced milk), and yet high number of tourists (high demand on dairy products) in the country. According to the Georgian National Tourism Administration, in September 2017 approximately 381 thousand international tourists visited Georgia and this amount exceeds the corresponding figure of September 2016 by almost quarter.
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In September, for the second time in 2017, AGRIndex’s all four sub-indexes were on the rise. Consequently, the m/m change in the AGRIndex was also positive at 2.4%, which is the highest value since January 2017. On sub-index level, DAIRY prices increased by almost one tenth of their August value, while the m/m change in VEGETABLE prices exceeded +2%. On the other hand, FRUIT prices increased by only 1.5%, while the gain in MEAT prices, compared to the previous month, was marginal (+0.5%).
As far as the y/y AGRIndex is concerned, it stood at +11.6% in September 2017, compared to September 2016.
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In August 2017, FRUIT prices were 7.6% higher compared to the same month of 2016, and this was the first case in 2017 when year-to-year changes were positive. In August month-to-month changes became positive too and the FRUIT sub-index rose by 2.3%.
The main contributors to m/m increase in FRUIT prices were domestically produced peach and nectarine, the price of which increased by almost quarter compared to July 2017. Nevertheless, nearly all the stone fruits (including peach and nectarine) the AGRIndex tracks, were cheaper in August 2017 than in August 2016.
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