October 31, 2016 Retail FPI | Food Prices Start to Go Up

Georgian retail prices increased at the end of October. Driven by seasonal fruits and vegetables, ISET’s Retail Food Price index gained 2.2% m/m (compared to the last week of September). However, compared to October 2015, we still observed a significant 13.5% decline in food prices.

IN THE SPOTLIGHT

In the most noteworthy news, bi-weekly price increases were recorded for tomatoes (66%), cucumber (52%), and eggplant (29%). Despite an overall upward trend in food prices, some products are becoming cheaper. The biggest price declines were observed for tangerines (12%), rice (10%), and bananas (9.3%).

STORY OF BANANAS

Compared to the previous month, bananas became cheaper: the average price of 1 kg of bananas went down, from 3.73GEL to 3.38GEL. Taking into account the fact that bananas are an imported fruit, one might look to the exchange rate for an explanation. However, the Georgian lari is experiencing depreciation. In October, the exchange rate between the Georgian lari and the U.S. dollar moved up from 2.32 to 2.42, compared to September. In other words, imports should be more expensive for Georgia. Therefore, the question is - what is wrong with bananas? We need to look for the answer in the world market. The international price of banana has definitely declined. One possible reason might be a good harvest.

It is worth noting that the biggest banana importer countries for Georgia are Ecuador and Turkey. In September 2016, the price of imported bananas from Ecuador was 0.86USD; that is not significantly higher than in August 2016 (0.83USD). However, the price of imported bananas from Turkey has decreased from 0.72USD to 0.61USD (-15%) during the same period. It turns out that Georgian supermarkets are selling more bananas that are imported from Turkey, not that Georgian farmers have secretly started to produce bananas.

Figure 1: the dynamics of banana price

Food Price Index Recent Publications

JUNE 2021 | AGRI REVIEW
On 15 June 2021, the National Statistics Office of Georgia published its annual publication for the agricultural sector - Agriculture of Georgia 2020. According to the publication, agriculture, forestry, and fishing comprised 8.4% of GDP in 2020, higher than the 7.2% share in 2019, but in line with the general trend over the last five years (agricultural GDP comprising on average 7-8% of GDP). Agricultural GDP in nominal terms increased by 13% on an annual basis.… Read More
MARCH 2021 | AGRI REVIEW
On 29 December 2020, the parliament of Georgia approved the state budget for 2021, which includes allocations of around 18.3 billion GEL. From which the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture (MEPA) will receive 451.6 million (2.5% of the total budget allocation). MEPA will direct 10 mln. GEL towards the Environmental Protection and Agriculture Development Program (2.2% of MEPA’s total budget), with around 389.6 mln. (86.3% of MEPA’s total budget) to be allocated to agricultural… Read More
DECEMBER 2020 | AGRI REVIEW
The COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about the food security of many countries, in particular import-dependent developing countries like Georgia. Trade restrictions imposed by Georgia’s trade partners tightened the supply of some cereals and vegetables, signalling the risk of an increase in food prices. While there is no formal evidence of food insecurity due to the pandemic, given that Georgia is a net importer of wheat the state subsidized wheat imports, and, according to Georgia’s Wheat… Read More
OCTOBER 2020 | AGRI REVIEW
The National Statistics Office of Georgia (GeoStat) recently published its economic review for Quarter II 2020. The publication highlights that agricultural production increased by 4.7% in the second quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2019. Furthermore, agriculture contributed to 10.2% of the country’s total GDP during the same period. In the second quarter of 2020, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in agriculture also increased and were almost six times higher than the… Read More
JUNE 2020 | AGRI REVIEW
On 15 June 2020, the National Statistics Office of Georgia published its annual publication for the agricultural sector - Agriculture of Georgia 2019. The publication shows that agriculture, forestry, and fishing comprised 7.2% of the nominal GDP in 2019, slightly lower than the 7.8% share in 2018, but in line with the general trend over the last five years (on average 7-8% of GDP). In nominal terms, the output of agriculture increased by 4% in 2019… Read More
DECEMBER 2019 | AGRI REVIEW
On December 10, the parliament of Georgia approved the state budget for 2020. The budget includes allocations of around 14.4 billion GEL. Out of which, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture (MEPA) will receive 353 mln. GEL (2.4% of the total budget allocation). MEPA will direct approximately 293 mln. GEL (2.0% of the total budget allocation) towards agricultural development and 60 mln. GEL (0.4%) will be spent on environmental protection. Compared to 2019, the… Read More
OCTOBER 2019 | AGRI REVIEW
On 30 August 2019, a public hearing to discuss Georgia’s Rural and Agricultural Development Strategy for 2021-2027 was conducted at the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture (MEPA). The new strategy document represents a roadmap for Georgia’s rural and agricultural development for the next decade. The strategy outlines three major goals to be achieved by 2027: 1. Increasing the competitiveness of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors; 2. Sustainable management of natural resources, preservation of ecosystems, and… Read More