Food prices continue to follow the latest trends. Retail FPI shows a 2.6% increase m/m (that is, compared to January 2017) and a 4.9% decline y/y (that is, compared to February 2016). During the last two weeks, matsoni, tea and carrots lost value (by 10.4%, 6.2% and 6.2% respectively), whereas the prices of cabbage, greens and eggplant increased (by 25.0%, 16.1% and 14.9% respectively).
GARLIC LOOKS INTERESTING
Higher vegetable prices are not surprising given seasonality. However, garlic prices have been continuously increasing during the last couple of months. Prices started rising in October 2016, and are now much higher (by 65%) than in 2015. Such a big difference y/y shows that increasing prices are caused by some other factors rather than seasonality.
In 2016, garlic imports to Georgia dropped by 63% in value, and by 65% in quantity, compared to 2015. Therefore, in 2016, Georgia imported less than half of the quantity that it imported in 2015. As to trade partners, Georgia imports garlic mostly from China, Turkey and Armenia, with
China being the leading import market for Georgia, and the biggest garlic producer in the world. In 2015, 50% of the total quantity of imported garlic to Georgia was from China, and in 2016, this amount slightly decreased and equaled 47%, which is still high.
Such a sharp decrease in the value and volume of imports can be easily explained if one looks at the world garlic market. Poor weather conditions (rain and snow) in China back in 2015 led to very bad harvest in 2016, causing speculation on the garlic market and drove international prices up. High worldwide prices forced Georgian importers to reduce their imports, and finally garlic became much more expensive in Georgia as well.
This particular case emphasizes again the importance of import substitution, both for consumers and producers. Increased domestic production would save Georgian consumers from shortages of products and high prices. As to producers, switching to high-value goods will also generate additional incomes for them.
Food Price Index Recent Publications
JUNE 2021 | AGRI REVIEW
On 15 June 2021, the National Statistics Office of Georgia published its annual publication for the agricultural sector - Agriculture of Georgia 2020. According to the publication, agriculture, forestry, and fishing comprised 8.4% of GDP in 2020, higher than the 7.2% share in 2019, but in line with the general trend over the last five years (agricultural GDP comprising on average 7-8% of GDP). Agricultural GDP in nominal terms increased by 13% on an annual basis.… Read More
MARCH 2021 | AGRI REVIEW
On 29 December 2020, the parliament of Georgia approved the state budget for 2021, which includes allocations of around 18.3 billion GEL. From which the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture (MEPA) will receive 451.6 million (2.5% of the total budget allocation). MEPA will direct 10 mln. GEL towards the Environmental Protection and Agriculture Development Program (2.2% of MEPA’s total budget), with around 389.6 mln. (86.3% of MEPA’s total budget) to be allocated to agricultural… Read More
DECEMBER 2020 | AGRI REVIEW
The COVID-19 pandemic raised concerns about the food security of many countries, in particular import-dependent developing countries like Georgia. Trade restrictions imposed by Georgia’s trade partners tightened the supply of some cereals and vegetables, signalling the risk of an increase in food prices. While there is no formal evidence of food insecurity due to the pandemic, given that Georgia is a net importer of wheat the state subsidized wheat imports, and, according to Georgia’s Wheat… Read More
OCTOBER 2020 | AGRI REVIEW
The National Statistics Office of Georgia (GeoStat) recently published its economic review for Quarter II 2020. The publication highlights that agricultural production increased by 4.7% in the second quarter of the year compared to the same period in 2019. Furthermore, agriculture contributed to 10.2% of the country’s total GDP during the same period. In the second quarter of 2020, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) in agriculture also increased and were almost six times higher than the… Read More
JUNE 2020 | AGRI REVIEW
On 15 June 2020, the National Statistics Office of Georgia published its annual publication for the agricultural sector - Agriculture of Georgia 2019. The publication shows that agriculture, forestry, and fishing comprised 7.2% of the nominal GDP in 2019, slightly lower than the 7.8% share in 2018, but in line with the general trend over the last five years (on average 7-8% of GDP). In nominal terms, the output of agriculture increased by 4% in 2019… Read More
DECEMBER 2019 | AGRI REVIEW
On December 10, the parliament of Georgia approved the state budget for 2020. The budget includes allocations of around 14.4 billion GEL. Out of which, the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture (MEPA) will receive 353 mln. GEL (2.4% of the total budget allocation). MEPA will direct approximately 293 mln. GEL (2.0% of the total budget allocation) towards agricultural development and 60 mln. GEL (0.4%) will be spent on environmental protection. Compared to 2019, the… Read More
OCTOBER 2019 | AGRI REVIEW
On 30 August 2019, a public hearing to discuss Georgia’s Rural and Agricultural Development Strategy for 2021-2027 was conducted at the Ministry of Environmental Protection and Agriculture (MEPA). The new strategy document represents a roadmap for Georgia’s rural and agricultural development for the next decade. The strategy outlines three major goals to be achieved by 2027: 1. Increasing the competitiveness of agricultural and non-agricultural sectors; 2. Sustainable management of natural resources, preservation of ecosystems, and… Read More
