A minor increase in consumer confidence in June 2021. The trend of increasing CCI continued from March 2021, this time with a slight 0.9 percentage point increase (from -33.2 in May to -32.1 in June) after a significant jump of 5 points from the previous month. The two sub-indices (the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index) moved in different directions: as people’s perception of the current situation improved, sentiment for the future worsened (Chart 1).

Continued economic recovery. The ongoing vaccination process and lifting the majority of COVID restrictions have contributed to growth in the Present Situation Index. The overall index follows the seasonal trend from last summer, as discussed in our previous report. With rising COVID cases and an increasing number of people infected with the Delta variant in the country, CCI index deterioration is anticipated in the ensuing summer months.

Sentiments of people with higher education vs the rest. The preexisting gap between those with higher education and the rest of the populace almost wholly disappeared during the start of the pandemic. However, in the autumn of 2020, the gap reappeared and continued until March of 2021, when the two indicators almost coincided. After March we see a reversal of the trend observed over the years, where the CCI of people with higher education is below those without (Chart 2). Finally, let’s review some of the characteristics of these two groups: there is little difference in terms of average age, 42 being the average of those with higher education and 41 for the rest. However, there is a fair distinction between their place of residence; 53% of all respondents with higher education are from Tbilisi, while the corresponding indicator is 27% for those without a higher education, implying that a significant majority of individuals with only school certification live in the regions.

BAR CHARTS: CONSUMER RESPONSES BY QUESTIONS