In April 2014, the CCI stopped dropping after four months of consecutive decline. During those four months (December-March 2014) the CCI dropped by 12.3 points in total. Last month (March 2014) the CCI reached a historical minimum of -13.7 points. In April 2014, the overall CCI increased by 2.3 points to reach -11.3 points. This improvement was driven by an increase in both parts of the CCI: the Present Situation Index gained 2.8 points, amounting to -13.6 points, while the Expectations Index was up by 1.8 points, reaching -9.1. One year ago, in April 2013, the CCI also increased (up by 1.2 points) compared to the previous month, but the CCI increase in April 2014 was a little higher (up by 2.3 points). Despite this, the CCI remains 4.9 points down in year-on-year terms. The slight increases in both April 2013 and April 2014 can be explained by the warmer weather of spring and the Easter holidays. Georgia is a religious country and, as one of the most important days in the calendar, Easter affects Georgian consumer’s perceptions. The increase of April 2014 was higher than in the previous year because of the expected role played by the forthcoming elections. We argue that politicians’ promises affect people’s perceptions. If we look at the CCI during all previous Georgian pre-election periods, it is evident that people’s perceptions increase one month before the elections.

This was the case in October 2012 as well as in October 2013. A few things to note: • The Present Situation Index as well as the Expectations Index increased regardless of the educational background of the respondents. However, the increase was sharper for respondents with higher education (up by 3.0 points), compared to those without higher education (up by 1.5 points). This can be explained by the fact that people with higher education are, as a whole, more involved in elections than other people. One of the explanations for this can be that, most of the people who are members of an election committee or who work in the election districts have university degrees, and this form of employment affects them and has made the increase in the CCI for people with higher education much more pronounced. • From the gender perspective, it is interesting that both the expectations and present situation indices significantly improved for females and worsened for males: April saw the largest improvement of the women’s Present Situation Index (up by 8.8 points) for the last two years. In April 2014 the overall CCI was higher for females (-10.8 points) as compared to males (-11.9 points). This gender trend is very unusual, not only for Georgia but for other countries as well. For example, in the history of the CCI of the United States, which began in the late 1970s, only one month (March 2000) saw the female CCI be higher than that of males. One of the explanations for this can be women’s participation in the election process. As women are predominantly employed as electoral observers, vote counters, registrars, etc. an increase in even such temporary employment might increase female expectations regarding their financial situation and future expenditures, etc. • The election might also be the reason why the CCI of younger respondents increased (up by 4.5 points) much more than that of their elders (an increase of 1.3 points). Young adults are much more politically active, they hope that their chosen political party will win and that they will subsequently get jobs. Elections are perceived as a new possibility for young people. They think that if they contribute to their political party’s success, then they will gain employment. Regional Peculiarities From the geographic perspective, it is evident that respondents in Tbilisi feel that there has been a much bigger improvement in the current situation than do respondents from the rest of Georgia. The Present Situation Index in the capital increased by 9.3 points, while it declined by 0.6 points in the regions. The Expectations Index improved by the same amount, up by 1.9 points, in both Tbilisi and the rest of Georgia. Thus, the overall increase in CCI was bigger for Tbilisi (up by 5.6 points) than it was for the regions (up by 0.6 points), amounting to -7.5 and -13.4 points respectively. All 12 questions were answered more positively by respondents from Tbilisi than from the rest of Georgia, however, the biggest difference was seen in responses to question 8, which is about a respondent’s willingness and ability to make major purchases. The index for this particular question was 53.3 for Tbilisi and 19.4 for the rest of Georgia. This difference can be explained by the fact that the agricultural period has started and in the regions people are spending their money on fertilizers, seeds and other related goods. They will reap the fruits of their labors in fall, while in Tbilisi spring is a time for renovations and Tbilisi citizens are thus buying new furniture and other household equipment, so they see the results of these purchases immediately.