ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the July 2014 releases of various economic indicators.
• Based on July data we made 4th update of Q3 forecast, and it was revised down from -7.6%, down to 3.7%.
• We also begin to forecast the last quarter of 2014, the forecast is not promising, it is just 1.7%
• Meanwhile, Geostat has released official quarterly growth GDP rate for the second quarter of 2014 and it is 5.2% (This data is still preliminary and will be revised in the future).
• From 2014 we started to draw some conclusions about annual growth rate for year 2014. Since we have already final figures or forecast for each quarter of 2014 we will not use the methodology which we have used in previous months and which is explained in our February and January publications. Yearly growth in 2014 is estimated to be 4.3%. If instead of our first vintage of fourth Quarter we will take historical average of all previous quarters we will get the same 4.3% annual growth in 2014, which in itself is quite close to EBRD-s and World Banks estimation of GDP growth of Georgia, they are respectively 4 and 5%. Download the full report