High Growth Rates Are Maintained

Details: Created: 11 July 2014

ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the May 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

• The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.5% to 7.7%.
• The growth forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 7.1% to 7.5%.
• Meanwhile, Geostat has released official quarterly growth GDP rate for the first quarter of 2014 and it is quite impressive 7.1% but. (This data is still preliminary and will be revised)
• From 2014 we started to draw some conclusions about annual growth rate for year 2014. The methodology that we use and the scenario description is explained in our February and January publications. Given these developments, we expect the annual growth rate in 2014 to be 6.5% at the very least and more likely somewhere around 6.9%. Download the full report

GDP Forecast Methodology

The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia‘s needs.