The average cost of cooking one standard Imeretian Khachapuri in October 2014 was 3.35 GEL, 0.1% lower both in month-on-month comparison (m/m, that is compared to the previous month) and year-on-year comparison (y/y, that is compared to the same month of last year).

While there was almost no price change, because many ingredients prices show seasonality – but both one month and one year ago, there was autumn. To illustrate seasonality, let us have a closer look at the price of cheese. The average price is highest (around 9 GEL per kilo) in the winter period, and lowest (around 5 GEL) in the summer period (see the graph). These changes are in turn best explained by the seasonality of one of the cheese’s main ingredients, fresh milk. Yet surprisingly, the price of milk, which you can buy in open markets or in supermarkets, does not follow the same seasonal path. The milk price seems to follow a different pattern than seasonal changes. How can that be? Does all this make sense?

Everything becomes clear if one looks at the recipe for traditional Georgian cheese, which requires milk that comes freshly from the udder of the cow. The price for fresh milk, however, does show the seasonal pattern we also observe with cheese. Shelf milk, whose price is depicted in the graph, is often produced with imported milk powder, which is a durable good.

Production of milk based on powder leads to an increase of milk powder imports in the last years. According to Geostat, in 2013 the value of imports amounted to $1,120 mln, while in the first 9 months of 2014 it has already reached $1,893 mln.