According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.
Based on new information, the ISET-PI forecast for Q3 has been lowered from 4.8% to 3.5%. The Q4 forecast remains largely the same at 4.2%. The estimated real GDP growth for the first seven months of 2016 was 2.7% YoY. This is 0.7 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s annual GDP forecast.
