According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 2.2% year over year (YoY) in 2016. This result fell behind the World Bank’s, IMF’s and EBRD’s last growth projections of 3.4%. The NBG’s 3.5% growth projection from November also overestimated Georgia’s economic growth in 2016.
The ISET-PI annual GDP growth forecast made in June was more realistic. At that time, we predicted a 2.7% annual growth rate in the worst-case scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case. However, in November, as growth rates slowed down, the ISET-PI GDP forecast predicted 2.7% YoY growth in 2016.
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Quarter 1 2021, Macro Review | The Georgian economy – a long and uncertain road to recovery
The World Bank (June 2021) estimates that global GDP growth will reach 5.6% year over year (y/y) in 2021. Though thus rebound is uneven, with growth concentrated mainly in advanced economies and developing countries set for a slower recovery. This is driven by unequal access to vaccines, different paces lifting virus containment restrictions, and the scale of fiscal support to the economy. This year the United States and Euro area are projected to expand by… Read More
Quarter 4 2020, Macro Review | The 2020 Georgian economy – the year in review
The COVID-19 outbreak had a devastating effect on the Georgian economy in 2020. Real GDP contracted by 6.1% according to Geostat’s rapid estimates of economic growth. This was the worst performance of real GDP growth in the country in more than two decades. According to the latest estimates, the economic reality turned out to be far worse than the mid-year projections from NBG, IMF and the World Bank for 2020, which ranged from -4% to… Read More
Quarter 3 2020, Macro Review | Georgia’s Q3 economic blues reflect the realities of the global supply and demand double shock
According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP contracted by 3.8% year over year (y/y) in Q3 2020. As a result, the estimated real GDP declined by 5.0% in the first nine months of 2020, which is in line with the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) and National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) latest projections of -5% y/y (from October and November correspondingly). Meanwhile, based on October’s data, ISET-PI expects lower GDP contraction in 2020, as the forecast stood… Read More
