ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2016 (the final update) and the first quarter of 2017. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
• Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2016. The estimated growth stands at 1.2%, which is 1.7% lower than the value forecasted in the last update of our model.
• Given the latest data, Georgian real GDP growth in 2016 is estimated as having been 2.2% (0.5 percentage points lower than projected by our model).
• ISET-PI’s forecast for the first quarter of 2017 puts GDP growth at 3.5%.
ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2016 and the first quarter of 2017. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
• Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2016. The Q3 growth rate stands at 2.2%, which was 1.3% below the ISET PI’s forecasted value.
• As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2016 was revised downward to 2.9% from the 4.1% projected in October.
• ISET-PI’s first forecast for Q1 of 2017 puts GDP growth at 3.5%.
ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the third and fourth quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:
• The growth forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2016 was revised downward to 3.5% from the 4.8% projected in July.
• The first forecast for the 4th quarter GDP growth has been projected at 4.15%.
• Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September, when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.
ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the third and fourth quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
• The growth projections for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2016 were revised downward by less than 0.1%. They now stand at 3.45% and 4.08% respectively.
• Based on the latest data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.3%. This is just 0.1% below the recently released annual economic growth projections of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and 0.2% lower than the annual forecast of the National Bank of Georgia.
ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
• The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 were revised upward by 0.5%. They now stand at 4.7% and 4.8% respectively.
• Based on the available data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.7%. This is our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters). Annual real GDP growth is predicted to be 2.9% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).
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