GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the third quarter of 2020. The Q3 growth rate stands at -3.8%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first nine months of 2020 is -5%.
As a result of the update, the growth forecast for Q4 of 2020 was revised to -3.3%. ISET-PI’s first forecast for Q1 of 2021 puts GDP growth at -1.4%.
Based on September’s data, we expect annual growth in 2021 to be -4.4%. This number is a little bit more optimistic than the forecast of the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) and International Organizations (ADB, IMF, and World Bank). It is worth noting that the ISET-PI’s annual growth forecast typically outperforms the others after September data is incorporated, but this year the economic landscape is riddled with significant uncertainties, which may not be fully reflected in any of the above-mentioned forecasts.
ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2020 remains at -11.6%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at -11.8%. Notably, our econometric model depends only on retrospective information (past observations), thus, the abnormally large negative growth of real GDP during the state of emergency period causes an overestimation of the contraction in the following quarters.
ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth rate forecast for Georgia for the second and third quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
Geostat has revised its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2020. The estimated growth now stands at 2.2%, which is 0.7 percentage points above the average growth rate previously estimated for Q1.
The real GDP growth rate contracted by 16.6% and 13.5% year-on-year in April and May 2020, respectively. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first five months of 2020 amounted to 5.4%.
ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2020, which now stands at -12.6%.
The real GDP growth rate contracted by 7.7% and 5.5% year-on-year in June and July 2020, respectively. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first seven months of 2020 amounted to -5.8%.
ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2020 stands at -11.6%. The second estimate for the fourth quarter growth forecast stands at -11.8%. Notably, our econometric model depends only on the retrospective information (past observations), thus, an abnormally large negative growth of the real GDP during the quarantine period causes overestimation of the contraction in the following quarters.
ISET-PI has updated its Georgian real GDP growth rate forecast for the second and third quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:
Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2020, which stands at 1.5%.
The estimated real GDP declined by 16.6% in April 2020 yearly and by 3.6 percent in the first four months of 2020. In April, the estimated real growth compared to the same period of the previous year posted negative in almost all activities, except mining and quarrying. Moreover, VAT payers’ turnover, used in rapid estimations of economic growth, dropped by 32.8% annually over the same period.
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