ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:
• The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 has not changed. They stand at 3.2% and 3.3% respectively.
• Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.
The unusual stability of the economic indicators used in our model during April is reflected on our forecast of the second and third quarters’ GDP growth. None of the forecast figures changed by even a tenth of a percentage point since the last update. However, some sets of the predictor variables exhibited relatively significant monthly and yearly changes. One such set is related to the volume of Foreign Currency Current Accounts (FCCA). As these volumes are denominated in the national currency, in order to remove the exchange rate effect we recalculated them in dollar terms. The volume increased by 10% in monthly terms and by 51% in annual terms (see the graph below). Download the full report
Economic data shows remarkable stability in March. The Annual GDP growth forecast for 2016 reaches 3.4 percent.
ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:
• The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2016 was revised downward from 5.0% to 4.2%. Our first prediction of GDP growth for the third quarter is 4.3%.
• Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2016. The Q1 growth rate stands at 2.3%, which is 0.6 percentage points below the forecast.
• We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the beginning of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016. Download the full report
ISET-PI has updated its forecast for Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first two quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:
• ISET-PI’s forecast for the first two quarters of 2016 has not changed from the previous prediction and stands at 2.9% and 5.0% respectively.
• We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.0% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.3% real GDP increase in 2016. Download the full report
ISET-PI has updated its forecast for Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first two quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:
• ISET-PI’s forecast for the first two quarters of 2016 remains at 2.9% and 5.0% respectively.
• We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the beginning of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.0% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.3% real GDP increase in 2016. This is just 0.3 percentage points above the recently released annual economic growth projection of 3% from the National Bank of Georgia. Download the full report
ISET-PI has updated its forecast for Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first two quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:
• According to Geostat estimates, Georgia’s annual real GDP growth in 2015 was 2.8%. ISET-PI’s annual GDP growth forecast of 2.9% annual growth (since September 2015) thus turned out to be quite accurate, just 0.1 percentage point above the official estimate.
• According to Geostat’s newly-released rapid estimates, GDP growth in January 2016 was 0.8% year on year.
• ISET-PI’s forecast for the first quarter of 2016 now stands at 2.9% – down from 3.5% in January. The second quarter growth forecast now stands at 5.0%. Download the full report
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