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Tourism is one of the main sources of income for rural population of Georgia, which benefited a lot thanks to summer weather conditions. Unlike to prolonged rainy season in the same period of last year, tourists enjoy sunshine in July 2014. Accordantly, the Consumer Confidence Index increased for the regions of Georgia (ROG) while it declined for Tbilisi citizens, who mostly spend money on holidays. At the same time CCI and both its components improved for young, while it declined for old population, in addition to good holiday season that might be the effect of planned KaZantip Anaklia event. Overall CCI experienced a slight decrease compared to the previous month. The Expectations Index remained almost unchanged (down by 0.1 points), as opposite changes in the regions and Tbilisi balanced each other. Present Situation Index declined (down by 2.9 points), mostly driven by sharp drop in Tbilisi. Thus, the overall Consumer Confidence Index decreased by 1.5 points and reached -11.4 points. In year-on-year terms, the change in the overall CCI is again negative (down by -1.7 points), meaning that in the same period of last year consumer confidence was a bit higher than it is now. Unlike to overall CCI, annual change in the Expectations Index is slight positive number (0.2 points). The Present Situation Index worsened by 3.5 points. A few things to note: •
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In June 2014, the CCI experienced a slight increase compared to the previous month. Both its components, the expectations and the present situation indices, improved. The improvement was much more significant in the expectations index, which increased by 2.8 points; while the present situation index improved by only 1.8 points. The overall Consumer Confidence Index increased by 2.3 points to reach -9.8 points. The increase in the expectations index might be explained by the EU-Georgia Association Agreement, which is perceived as leading towards a good/European life for Georgia in the future. Another factor that positively contributed is the local elections. Our past experience with CCI data shows that consumers’ expectations hike just before elections (as it did in both November 2012 and 2013). In year-on-year terms, the overall CCI is again negative (-1.0), meaning that in the same period last year consumer confidence was a bit higher than it is now. But interestingly enough, the change in the expectations index became positive for the first time in five months. The present situation index significantly worsened (down by 3.1 points), which outweighed the positive change in expectations. A few things to note: •
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In April 2014, the CCI started to increase after four consecutive months of decline. However, that increase proved to be short lived. In May 2014, the CCI remained at almost the same level as in the previous month: the present situation index decreased by 0.7 points and the expectations index decreased by 0.9 points for a total CCI decrease of 0.8 points. As the extent of these changes are not significant, one can say that the CCI has not changed between April and May. This is due to the fact that elections will take place next month (June 2014) and people are waiting for results. In year-on-year terms, the CCI is again below 0, meaning that the CCI was higher in the same period last year than it is now. In May 2013, the decrease in the CCI was much more pronounced than in May 2014 (a drop of 4.8 points). However, the four consecutive months decrease in the CCI (between December 2013 and March 2014) has made the overall CCI lower than last month’s corresponding value. A few things to note: •
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