Details

Created: 31 March 2014

In March 2014 the CCI continued its downward trend. Both components of the CCI, expectations and perceptions of the present situation, declined. The monthly drop was a little bit more pronounced in March as compared to the previous month (February 2014). The Expectations Index was down by 2.4 points and the Present Situation Index dropped by 3.3 points, reaching -10.9 and -16.4 points respectively. This decline put the overall CCI down by 2.8 points, causing it to reach its historical minimum of -13.7 points. The February 2014 CCI publication stated that “the CCI experienced its third consecutive decline, which is the longest such period in the history of the Georgian CCI (since it began in May 2012)”, unfortunately this negative situation has become prolonged and March saw the fourth consecutive drop of the CCI. One year ago (March 2013) the CCI declined by almost the same value, but began the drop from a much higher level that had been reached after two months of consecutive growth (January and February 2013). In year-on-year terms the CCI is down by 6.1 points. If we take into account recent estimates of the GDP forecast (published by ISET-PI), which predict 5.3% growth in the first quarter of 2014, the CCI results seem quite puzzling. If real GDP increases this should be reflected in greater wellbeing for society, but the CCI does not reflect this. Instead of an improvement of people’s perceptions and expectations, it maintains a downward trend. This can be partially explained by the ongoing crisis in Ukraine, which has been intensively covered by the television news. Parallels are being drawn between Georgia and Ukraine, which make people afraid. This hypotheses can be strengthened by the fact that for older people (aged over 40) the CCI dropped much more significantly (down by 4.2 points) than it did for younger (below 40) respondents (down by 1.8 points). One can say that the main source of information in Georgia for older people is television, while the younger members of society get much better information from different sources. A few things to note: • Consumers’ confidence decreased regardless of the education level of respondents. However the main driving force of the decline in the CCI came from people without higher education. Their responses saw a decline of 3.9 points, which was more than twice the drop in the confidence of higher educated people (down by 1.4 points). • From the perspective of gender, the drop in the CCI was more pronounced in males (down by 3.4 points) than in females (down by 1.6 points). However, male confidence (-9.5 points) still remains significantly higher than female confidence (-17.2 points). The largest difference between males and females was seen in responses to question 12 about households’ current financial situations. 48% of males responded that they are spending their existing savings or are running into debt, while a much higher share of females (66.4 %) think in the same way. There was also quite a big difference in responses to question 5 about past price changes, 41% of females evaluated past price changes as having seen a very sharp increase, whereas only 24% of males said the same. These results might mean that females are more prone to exaggeration (or males to under exaggeration) or that they perceive facts more emotionally than males. • In the previous month, the CCI for younger respondents increased, while that for older respondents decreased. In March 2014 the CCI decreased for both groups. However, the decrease for older members of society (a drop by 4.2) was much bigger than for it was for younger members (a drop by 1.8). The main difference was seen in answers to question 1, about changes to their household financial situation over the last 12 months. 38.5% of older respondents evaluated past financial changes as having worsened a lot or a little bit, while 21% of the younger respondents said the same. Regional Peculiarities The change of overall CCI was similar in the capital and the rest of Georgia. In February 2014 the CCI increased in the rest of Georgia, but decreased in Tbilisi. In March 2014 the CCI decreased in both places, with a higher drop in the regions. The drop in Tbilisi and in the rest of Georgia was 1.5 and 3.7 points respectively. From the graph it is evident that before November 2013 there was a significant difference in confidence between Tbilisi and the rest of Georgia. After November 2013 the two areas moved closer together, with both the direction and actual numbers currently being very close. In March 2014 the CCI reached -13.0 and -14.1 respectively in Tbilisi and the regions.