ISET

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ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the third and fourth quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:

• The growth forecast for the 3rd quarter of 2016 was revised downward to 3.5% from the 4.8% projected in July.

• The first forecast for the 4th quarter GDP growth has been projected at 4.15%.

• Based on the latest data, the updated annual GDP growth projection is 3.4%. It is noteworthy that the model starts to provide the most accurate annual estimate in September, when seven months of data is available on core explanatory variables.

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ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

• The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 were revised upward by 0.5%. They now stand at 4.7% and 4.8% respectively.

• Based on the available data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 3.7%. This is our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters). Annual real GDP growth is predicted to be 2.9% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.4% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).

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ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2016. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:

• The growth forecast for the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2016 has not changed. They stand at 3.2% and 3.3% respectively.

• Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2016 to be 2.7% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the-road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 3.4% real GDP increase in 2016.

The unusual stability of the economic indicators used in our model during April is reflected on our forecast of the second and third quarters’ GDP growth. None of the forecast figures changed by even a tenth of a percentage point since the last update. However, some sets of the predictor variables exhibited relatively significant monthly and yearly changes. One such set is related to the volume of Foreign Currency Current Accounts (FCCA). As these volumes are denominated in the national currency, in order to remove the exchange rate effect we recalculated them in dollar terms. The volume increased by 10% in monthly terms and by 51% in annual terms (see the graph below). Download the full report

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