ISET

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ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2017. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

• ISET-PI’s forecast of the real GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2017 remains almost unchanged at 5.8% and 7.0% respectively.

• We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on the January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 6.2% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 6.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the road” scenario (based on the average growth in the last four quarters) predicts a 6.3% real GDP growth in 2017.

Details

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second and third quarters of 2017. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

• Geostat has released its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2017. The Q1 growth rate now stands at 5.1%, which is 1.6% above the ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. Moreover, the average growth rate for the first five month of the year amounted to the 4.5%.

• ISET-PI’s forecast of the real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2017 stands at 5.8% - up from 4.4%. The first estimate of the third quarter growth forecast is at 6.9%.

Details

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2017. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

• ISET-PI’s forecast for the second quarter of 2017 was revised upward from 4.4% to 5.9%.

• Meanwhile, Geostat has updated its GDP growth estimate for the first quarter of 2017. The Q1 growth rate stands at 5%, which is 1.8 percentage points above the forecast.

• We started forecasting the annual growth rate at the start of 2014 (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on the January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2017 to be 6.2% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 6.6% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.

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