GDP Forcast

Details: Created: 21 January 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018 (final update), and the first quarter of 2019. These are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. The Q3 estimate was revised downward to 3.7% (0.3 percentage points lower than the previous estimate).

The real GDP growth rate reached only 2.2% year-on-year for November 2018. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first eleven months of 2018 was revised downward to 4.7%.

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Details: Created: 10 December 2018

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018, and the first quarter of 2019. These are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat recently updated its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the first and second quarters of 2018. The Q1 and Q2 GDP growth estimates were revised downward to 5.2% and 5.6%, respectively. The third quarter estimates so far remained unchanged.

The real GDP growth rate reached 6.7% year-on-year for October 2018. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first ten months of 2018 was 5.1%.

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Details: Created: 12 November 2018

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter of 2018. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Recently, Geostat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2018. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 4.0%, which is 3.2% below the ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2018 amounted to 4.9%.

ISET-PI revised its forecast of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018 to 3.7% - down from 6.4% in October.

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GDP Forecast Methodology

The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia‘s needs.