GDP Forcast

Details: Created: 18 November 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the fourth quarters of 2019. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Recently, GeoStat has released its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019. The Q3 growth rate now stands at 5.7%, which is 1.4% below the ISET-PI’s last forecasted value. As a result, the estimated real GDP growth for the first nine months of 2019 amounted to 5.0%.

ISET-PI revised its forecast of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2019 to 4.4% - down from 5.5% in September.

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Details: Created: 21 October 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the third and fourth quarters of 2019. The highlights of this month’s release are as follows:

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2019 remains at 7.1%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. While, the third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at 5.5%.

Geostat recently published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for August, which currently stands at 5.8%. As a result, the real GDP growth estimate for the first eight months of 2019 was reduced to 5%.

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Details: Created: 23 September 2019

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the third and fourth quarters of 2019. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2019, which now stands at 4.5%. This is only 0.3 percentage points below ISET-PI’s recent forecast.

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2019 stands at 7.1% — 0.4 percentage points lower than last month’s prediction. The first estimate for the fourth quarter growth forecast stands at 5.5%.

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GDP Forecast Methodology

The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia‘s needs.