ISET

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ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2019 and these are the main features of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s forecasted real GDP growth for the first two quarters of 2019 remain at 4.3% and 4.6%, respectively.

Geostat has released its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for February 2019. Their estimated growth stands at 4.6%, while the average real GDP growth for January-February 2019 reached 4.1%.

Based on February’s data, we expect 2019 annual growth to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the road” scenario (based on the average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.

Details

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2019. These are the main features of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2019 stands at 4.3%. The second estimate of second quarter growth forecast now stands at 4.6%.

Based on January’s data, we expect annual growth in 2019 to be 4.4% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.5% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario. Our “middle-of-the road” scenario (based on average growth over the last four quarters) predicts 4.7% real GDP growth.

Details

ISET-PI has updated its forecast of Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first and second quarters of 2019. These are the main features of this month’s release:

Geostat has published its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2018, and their estimated growth stands at 4.8%, which is 1.1 percentage point above ISET-PI’s most recent forecast.

Utilizing the latest data, real annual GDP growth in 2018 amounted to 4.8%. It is notable that by March of 2018, our model predicted 4.8% real growth in the “middle-of-the-road” scenario that now perfectly coincides with the official statistics. Moreover, our annual GDP forecasts of 4.7% (since November) and 4.6% (since December), equally were revealed to be quite accurate.

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