GDP Forcast

Details: Created: 21 October 2020

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter (July-September) of 2020 remains at -11.6%, unchanged from last month’s prediction. The third estimate for the fourth quarter (October-December) growth forecast stands at -11.8%. Notably, our econometric model depends only on retrospective information (past observations), thus, the abnormally large negative growth of real GDP during the state of emergency period causes an overestimation of the contraction in the following quarters.

Read the full article

Details: Created: 23 September 2020

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the third and fourth quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Recently, Geostat has released the preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2020, which now stands at -12.6%.

The real GDP growth rate contracted by 7.7% and 5.5% year-on-year in June and July 2020, respectively. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first seven months of 2020 amounted to -5.8%.

ISET-PI’s forecast of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2020 stands at -11.6%. The second estimate for the fourth quarter growth forecast stands at -11.8%. Notably, our econometric model depends only on the retrospective information (past observations), thus, an abnormally large negative growth of the real GDP during the quarantine period causes overestimation of the contraction in the following quarters.

Read the full article

Details: Created: 23 July 2020

ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth rate forecast for Georgia for the second and third quarters of 2020. Here are the highlights of this month’s release:

Geostat has revised its rapid estimate of real GDP growth for the first quarter of 2020. The estimated growth now stands at 2.2%, which is 0.7 percentage points above the average growth rate previously estimated for Q1.

The real GDP growth rate contracted by 16.6% and 13.5% year-on-year in April and May 2020, respectively. Consequently, the estimated real GDP for the first five months of 2020 amounted to 5.4%.

Read the full article

Page 3 of 26

GDP Forecast Methodology

The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia‘s needs.