GDP Forcast

Details: Created: 11 May 2014

ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the March 2014 releases of various economic indicators.
• The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014has been revised slightly upward from 7.3% to 7.4%.
• The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.7%.
• From 2014 we started to draw some conclusions about annual growth rate for year 2014. The methodology that we use and the scenario description is explained in our previous publication. Given these developments, we expect the annual growth rate in 2014 to be 5.6% at the very least and more likely somewhere around 6.8%. Download the full report

Details: Created: 11 April 2014

ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the February 2014 releases of various economic indicators.

• The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 5.3% to 7.3%.
• The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.0%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released official quarterly growth GDP rate for the last quarter of 2013 and it is quite impressive 7.1%.
• From 2014 we started to draw some conclusions about annual growth rate for year 2014. The methodology that we use and the scenario description is explained in our previous publication. Given these developments, we expect the annual growth rate in 2014 to be 4.5% at the very least and more likely somewhere around 5.7%. Download the full report

Details: Created: 11 March 2014

ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the January 2013 releases of various economic indicators.

• The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised downward from 5.6% to 5.3%.
• The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 5.9%. Meanwhile, Geostat has updated GDP annual growth estimate of 2013 from 3.1% to 3.2%.
• From 2014 we started to draw some conclusions about annual growth rate for year 2014. The methodology that we use and the scenario description is explained in our previous publication. Given these developments, we expect the annual growth rate in 2014 to be 3.9% at the very least and more likely somewhere around 5.0%. Download the full report

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GDP Forecast Methodology

The Georgian Index of Leading Economic Indicators provides current-quarter and one-quarter-ahead GDP forecasts for those who need to make business and policy decisions and cannot wait until the official statistics are announced several months later. According to methodology, our forecast is similar to those conducted by leading research institutes around the world. In particular, ISET-PI adapted the methodology that was originally developed by the New Economic School to forecast GDP for the Russian Federation. We would like to acknowledge the help of Prof. Konstantin Styrin (NES) who agreed to share his MATLAB code with ISET-PI, and the assistance of Dr. Andrei Sarychev in modifying and adapting the code for Georgia‘s needs.