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According to the most recent rapid estimates of economic growth by GeoStat, in November 2015 the Georgian economy increased by 5.3% compared to the same month the year before. The 5.3% increase represents the highest growth rate in nearly 15 months. This optimistic outcome should, however, be treated with a degree of caution. As can be seen from Figure 1 above, one of the reasons for the high growth numbers in November 2015 was the fact that November 2014 was a particularly bad month in which GDP declined by 0.5% in year-on-year terms.
Nevertheless, the high growth in November 2015 can be treated as evidence that the overall economy stabilized in the last quarter of the year. We are certainly not observing high swings in GDP, which in itself is a good sign.
For the first eleven months of 2015, the year-on-year growth rate was 3.0% – the same as ISET-PI’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) annual growth forecast. The LEI prediction for the fourth quarter is still 3.5% (the forecast remained virtually unchanged since the last update).
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According to the most recent statistics, the Georgian economy is showing signs stabilization in the last quarter of 2015. Economic growth increased to 3% year on year in October – about the same as the estimated average real GDP growth rate (2.8%) for the first ten months of 2015.
ISET-PI’s Leading Economic Indicators forecast still predicts 3.6% growth in the fourth quarter (the forecast remained virtually unchanged since last month’s update), and 2.9% annual GDP growth for 2015.
The Georgian economy is thus showing a degree of resilience to regional economic pressures.
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