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According to Geostat’s rapid estimates, real GDP grew by 2.1% in July 2016, while the growth rate for Q2 stood at 2.3% year over year (YoY). The estimated second quarter growth was thus 1.6 percentage points lower than ISET-PI’s GDP forecast for the quarter.
Based on new information, the ISET-PI forecast for Q3 has been lowered from 4.8% to 3.5%. The Q4 forecast remains largely the same at 4.2%. The estimated real GDP growth for the first seven months of 2016 was 2.7% YoY. This is 0.7 percentage points less than ISET-PI’s annual GDP forecast.
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According to Geostat estimates, real GDP grew by 4.3% year over year (YoY) in April 2016. Although the growth rate showed an upward trend from the beginning of the year, the ISET-PI forecast for Q2 and Q3 has remained at 4.2% and 4.3%, the same as in previous predictions. This means that the real growth rate is expected to stabilize at the 4-4.5% level in the next months. The positive dynamic in the real GDP growth rate has been complemented with increasing trends in the consumer and business confidence indices in recent months. Unlike last quarter, the second quarter increase in the BCI was mostly driven by a significant improvement in performance rather than in business expectations, which kept rising albeit at a marginal pace. In terms of the CCI, the current situation component increased, but this was somewhat tempered by lowered expectations. Despite this, the overall CCI still climbed, resulting in the highest CCI level since January 2015 (see these links for the full reports: CCI, BCI). Download the full report
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