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Georgia’s real GDP growth rate in Q3 reached 4.4% year-on-year, putting the country on the path to achieve 4.7% annual growth in 2017. Export, tourism and money transfer trends were behind the strong showing in Quarter 3.
Supply side pressures will keep inflation above the 4% target in 2017.
The Georgian lari (GEL) depreciated against the trade partner currencies both relative to the previous quarter and relative to Q3 of the last year.
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According to the preliminary statistics released by GeoStat, Georgia’s real GDP growth was 4% year over year (YoY) in Q2 2017, which fell short of the 5.8% that had been expected by ISET-PI GDP forecast made in July. This shortfall was driven not by weak performance, but overly optimistic predictions of ISET-PI’s empirical model, influenced by high actual growth in the first quarter (5.1% YoY). It is notable that the Georgian government’s target of the real GDP growth (4%) does not seem to be overambitious; the National Bank of Georgia also leaves its forecast for annual growth unchained in the latest monetary policy report (August 2017).
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