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In March 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy started to sink into what is expected to be the deepest worldwide recession since World War II. Despite unprecedented policy support, the majority of countries have failed to soften the fallout from the crisis. According to World Bank estimates, global GDP will contract by 5.2% year over year (y/y) in 2020. The United States and Euro Area are projected to shrink by 6.1% and 9.1% respectively, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow at just 1% in 2020. In addition, all of Georgia’s neighbours are expected to face an economic contraction this year: from -2.6% (Armenia) to -6% (Russia).
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According to Geostat, the 2019 real GDP growth in Georgia was 5.1% year-over-year (YoY). This figure moderately surpassed NBG’s, ADB’s, EBRD’s, IMF’s and the World Bank’s latest growth projections for 2019, which range from 4.5%-4.7%. However, the real winner in this race was ISET-PI’s annual GDP growth forecast; in May 2019, we predicted a 4.9% annual growth. Although 2019 may now seem like the distant past in light of the coronavirus epidemic, it is worth noting that Georgia headed into 2020 with strong momentum. Therefore, the fact that the 2019 growth outcomes were strong will likely soften the impact of COVID-19 on the economy in 2020.
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