After being steadily optimistic for most of 2014 and in the first quarter of 2015, Georgia’s business confidence dropped by 24.5 points to an all-time low level of 3.6 on a scale of [-100; 100] points. The survey, which included 168 firms, suggests that business confidence declined on all measures, across all sectors, and for all firm sizes. Moreover, it is reflected in business perceptions concerning both current performance and expectations concerning the future.
The sharp decline in business confidence appears to be related to the recent depreciation of the Georgian lari and the political wrangling that followed. The drop in business confidence comes after seven months during which Georgian consumer confidence has been steadily declining, affecting consumer demand and sales.
While the retail sector was the first one to be affected by the slump in demand, second quarter data suggest that the Georgian financial sector is also starting to feel the heat. Financial sector confidence dropped by a record 50.8 points (from 50.9 index points in the first quarter of 2015 to merely 0.1 points in the second quarter)!
The Business Confidence Index decreased slightly and registered 24.5 points in Q1 (previous quarter BCI was 24.9). Decrease in the retail sector business confidence is marginally the highest. This is driven by a sizeable drop in Consumer Confidence. Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell sharply since November 2014. The sales price expectations turned from negative to positive in the first quarter of 2015. Insufficient demand remains the most limiting factor for doing business in Georgia.
In the second quarter of this year, the ISET Business Confidence Index registered 21.7 on a scale of 100 points (see methodology below). This is down from the 30.2 recorded in the first quarter of the same year. The positive number nevertheless indicates that confidence factor among businesses is about 21.7 more positive, rather than negative or neutral (e.g. a confidence index of 100 would have indicated that all firms in the sample reported a positive outlook. An index of zero would indicate that the weighted balance of positive and negative views reported by firms is about equal, or alternatively that all firms reported no change in the current business situation). Download the full report
In the fourth quarter of 2014, the Business Confidence Index decreased and registered 24.9 on a scale of 100 points. This is down from the 40.4 recorded in the third quarter of the same year. The positive number indicates that the confidence factor among businesses is about 25 index points more positive than negative or neutral (e.g. a confidence index of 100 would have indicated that all firms in the sample reported a positive outlook. An index of zero would indicate that the weighted balance of positive and negative views reported by firms is about equal or, alternatively, that all firms reported no change in the current business situation. For more details, see the methodological notes). The reduction in the confidence index was driven by large firms in almost all sectors. At the same time, we note that SME business sentiment continues to grow.
• Key findings The Business Confidence Index (BCI) improves and reaches 40.4 index points.
• Seasonal factor has been driving the positive outlook.
• Most firms are optimistic about the next three months.
• The sales price expectations are outstandingly increased for the retail trade sector.
The Business Confidence Index increases and registers 40.4 on a range of [‐100; 100] points in the third quarter of this year. The BCI of 100 would have indicated that all firms in the sample reported a positive outlook. An index of zero would indicate that positive and negative views reported by firms is about equal, or alternatively in overall, firms reported no change in the current business situation, and ‐100 would indicate that all survey respondents were much less confident about different business environmental factors. Therefore,current positive number indicates that confidence factor among businesses is about 40 index points more positive, rather than negative or neutral.
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