ISET-PI has updated the forecast for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the June 2015 releases of various economic indicators.
• The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 was revised significantly downward to low signle digits, and is now targeted at 2.6%
• Given the newly revised Q3 forecast, the annual growth in 2015 is expected to be 2.6% in the worst-case, or “no growth” scenario, and 3% in the best-case, or “average long-term growth” scenario (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology).
The significant downward revision of Q3 forecast comes as no surprise after the underwhelming growth results for Q2 were officially released by Geostat.
ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using an updated forecast model and the April 2015 releases of various economic indicators.
- The growth forecast for the second quarter of 2015 was revised slightly downward from 5.1% to 5.0%.
- The growth forecast for the third quarter of 2015 has been targeted at 5.3%.
- Meanwhile, Geostat updated its GDP growth estimate for April 2015 to 0.9%
- From the beginning of last year, we started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for the ongoing year (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on the data from March, we expect annual growth in 2015 to be 4.8% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.1% in the best-case or “average long-term growth” scenario.
ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the October 2014 releases of various economic indicators.
• Based on the October data, the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was revised upward from 1.1% to 3.6%.
• We have started to forecast the first quarter of 2015, with the initial forecast standing at 3.2%.
• Meanwhile, Geostat’s “rapid estimate” growth forecast for the month of October is 3.5%.
• We started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for 2014 at the beginning of the year (see our January and February publications for a note on our methodology). We used the forecasts available for each quarter to predict that Georgia’s GDP growth in 2014 will be 5.3%. This figure is quite close to the official 5% annual growth forecast made by the Georgian government. Download the full report
ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the February 2014 releases of various economic indicators.
• The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 5.3% to 7.3%.
• The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has been targeted at 7.0%. Meanwhile, Geostat has released official quarterly growth GDP rate for the last quarter of 2013 and it is quite impressive 7.1%.
• From 2014 we started to draw some conclusions about annual growth rate for year 2014. The methodology that we use and the scenario description is explained in our previous publication. Given these developments, we expect the annual growth rate in 2014 to be 4.5% at the very least and more likely somewhere around 5.7%. Download the full report
ISET-PI has updated its now-casting model for Georgia’s real GDP growth using the December 2013 releases of various economic indicators.
• The growth forecast for the 4th quarter of 2013 is unchanged at 4.9%, suggesting annual growth of 2.6%, while Geostat’s flash estimates are 6.9% for 2013Q4 and 3.1% for the whole year.
• The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 is broadly unchanged (revised downward slightly from 5.7% to 5.6%). Thus, we expect the annual growth rate in 2014 to be at least 3.4% and more likely around 5.6%. Download the full report
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