ISET-PI has updated its forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using August 2014 releases of various economic indicators.
• Based on the data from August, the fifth update of the Q3 growth forecast was yet again revised downward from 3.7% to 2.2%.
• The second update of the growth forecast for the last quarter of 2014 was also revised from 1.7% down to 0.4%.
• Meanwhile, Geostat has released the “rapid estimates” of monthly growth rate for August 2014. The August estimate is still a hefty 5.2%, although this data is preliminary and is set to be further revised in the future.
• In the beginning of 2014, we started to forecast the annual growth rate for 2014 (see our January and February publications for a note on the methodology). Based on the forecasts available for each quarter, we predict that GDP growth in Georgia in 2014 will be 3.5%. This forecast represents a downgrade from our earlier prediction of 4.3% annual growth. The downward revision carries through, even if we use a slightly different methodology to forecast annual growth. Download the full report

ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the February 2015 releases of various economic indicators but now with updated forecast model.
• The growth forecast for the 1st quarter of 2014 has been revised upward from 0.5% to 2.3%.
• The growth forecast for the 2nd quarter of 2014 has also revised upward from 1.6% to 4.3%.
• Meanwhile, Geostat has updated GDP growth estimate for February 2015, it stands at 4.9%.
• From the beginning of last year, we started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for the ongoing year (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2015 to be 3.2% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 4.3% in the best-case or “average long term growth” scenario. Download the full report

ISET PI has updated the forecasts for Georgia’s real GDP growth rates using the July 2014 releases of various economic indicators.
• Based on July data we made 4th update of Q3 forecast, and it was revised down from -7.6%, down to 3.7%.
• We also begin to forecast the last quarter of 2014, the forecast is not promising, it is just 1.7%
• Meanwhile, Geostat has released official quarterly growth GDP rate for the second quarter of 2014 and it is 5.2% (This data is still preliminary and will be revised in the future).
• From 2014 we started to draw some conclusions about annual growth rate for year 2014. Since we have already final figures or forecast for each quarter of 2014 we will not use the methodology which we have used in previous months and which is explained in our February and January publications. Yearly growth in 2014 is estimated to be 4.3%. If instead of our first vintage of fourth Quarter we will take historical average of all previous quarters we will get the same 4.3% annual growth in 2014, which in itself is quite close to EBRD-s and World Banks estimation of GDP growth of Georgia, they are respectively 4 and 5%. Download the full report

With the release of the December data, the year of 2014 is now “officially” over. ISET-PI has updated its forecast for Georgia’s real GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2015; meanwhile, official rapid estimates of both fourth quarter and annual growth rates for 2014 became available from Geostat. Here are the highlights of this month’s releases:

• Geostat’s official rapid growth estimate for the last quarter of 2014 is 1.6%, while annual growth stands at 4.7%
• ISET-PI’s forecast for the first quarter of 2015 stands at 3.6%, which is just 0.1 points below the previous month’s forecast.
• From the beginning of last year, we started drawing conclusions about the annual growth rate for the ongoing year (see our January 2014 and February 2014 publications for a note on methodology). Based on this month’s data, we expect annual growth in 2015 to be 3.2% in the worst-case or “no growth” scenario, and 5.4% in the best-case or “average long term growth” scenario. Download the full report