ISET

ISET Economist Blog

A blog about economics in the South Caucasus.
Nov
16

A New Competition Policy for Georgia

In recent weeks there has been a lot of talk about alleged monopolies and cartels in Georgia, and Georgia’s future competition policy. With few exceptions this debate has been pathetic. The debate has been dominated by politicians or businesses with a vested interest in the outcome. Even worse the framework of the debate is often provided by self-proclaimed experts with no actual expertise. According to the debate monopolies and cartels are pervasive in Georgia. Seemingly almost every sector of the Georgian economy is not competitive, either because firm...
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Nov
12

Price Stability: the Lull before the Storm?

During the past 18 months, Georgian consumers have been enjoying an unprecedented period of price stability. Ever since May 2011, when inflation peaked given the state of frenzy in the global commodity markets, inflation has literally come to a halt: since early 2012, monthly inflation rates are fluctuating around the zero trend. In fact, Consumer Price Index (CPI) is slightly lower today (153) than in January 2012 (153.8), and only 0.1% higher than in October 2011 (152.8). THE STORM IS COMING! A spate of worrisome news is hitting the Georgian media sin...
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Nov
09

On Democratization and Growth - Once Again

A long season of high–stakes elections in Georgia, Ukraine, and now the United States is finally over. Once the last campaign posters are taken down, we may as well start asking: now what? Whether we like to admit it or not, the success of democracy is probably ill measured by the show of competitive campaigns or the transparency of the voting system. Instead, the success largely depends on how informed and engaged in the political process the general public remains after the elections. This is something Ukraine has discovered the hard way sinc...
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Oct
24

Georgia: The Hub Issue

The new issue of Investor.GE is out, this time focusing on Georgia as the hub for the South Caucasus and Central Asia. This quote from the lead article caught my attention: I am amazed at how many requests I am getting from major multinationals from all industry sectors to speak with them about doing business in Georgia. I am also increasingly seeing multinational companies who are already in the region, looking to change their business model to move many of their activities through Georgia," he said, noting that so far most interest comes fro...
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Oct
18

Political Instability in Fragile Democracies

Free Policy Briefs has an insightful post on political instability in Kyrgyzstan. The literature, typically using panel data covering many countries, shows that higher government turnover rates reduces growth significantly in both economic and statistical terms, even for established democracies. Looking at government turnover in more polarized societies and unconstitutional change in power (revolutions and coups), the effect is estimated to be even larger. Is this relevant for Georgia? Only the future will show.
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